Suchergebnisse

AbstractI propose asymmetric trade liberalizations as a new potential determinant of current account dynamics. I focus on South Korea, which experienced a rise and fall of its current account in the period from 2010 to 2018, when it signed preferential trade agreements (PTAs) with its main trading partners. First, I develop a model where the current account depends on the timing of present and future relative changes of trade costs. Second, I provide empirical evidence supporting the key predictions of the model using the Canada–Korea PTA. PTAs provide predictable, potentially asymmetric, future tariff paths on many products. I use information for over 2,500 HS‐6 products to build relative trade liberalization measures, and show that current (future) high relative trade liberalizations tend to decrease (increase) the trade balance, consistent with the model. Finally, I propose a quantitative investigation of the Korean surplus based on the asymmetric dynamics of trade costs between South Korea and its main trading partners. I develop a two‐country international real business cycle model augmented with trade costs. When fed with the actual asymmetric trends found in the data, the model generates a current account surplus of about 2.15% of GDP, roughly 66% of what was observed in the Korean data.

In this paper, I show a strong positive correlation between the value-added share of manufacturing in 2000 and current account balances in 2007 for the Euro area countries. I propose asymmetries in the timing of trade liberalizations as a new mechanism affecting the dynamics of the current account. I build intuition using a simple model. Then, I use an international business cycle model to show how the asymmetric dynamics of trade costs in manufacturing and services in 2000-2007 can partially explain the rise in the German surplus. Lastly, I provide broad empirical support for the key predictions of the theory. ; The ADEMU Working Paper Series is being supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, grant agreement No 649396.

AbstractThis paper explores the role of policy and economic structure in determining international mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in services sectors. The analysis is based on bilateral sectoral M&A flow data and detailed information on policy barriers from a new database. Restrictive investment policies are found to reduce the probability of M&A inflows, controlling for bilateral frictions such as geography. This negative effect, however, is mitigated in countries with relatively large shares of manufacturing and (to a lesser extent) services in GDP. The same result holds for the number of M&A deals concluded. Findings are robust to accounting for the potential endogeneity of policy restrictiveness. The evidence suggests that the impact of policy is state‐dependent and related to the composition of GDP in the target economy.